基于黔南区域站暴雨天气分布特征及成因分析
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1.黔南州气象局;2.贵州东方世纪科技股份有限公司;3.贵州省气象台;4.贵州省黔南布依族苗族自治州气象局

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贵州省气象局省市联合科研基金项目(黔气科合 SS〔2023〕36 号)。


Analysis on Distribution Characteristics and Causes of Rainstorm Weather at Regional Stations in Qiannan Prefecture
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1.Qiannan Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province;2.Guizhou East Century Science and Technology Co . , Ltd .;3.Qiannan Bouyei and Miao Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Office of Guizhou Province;4.Guizhou Meteorological Observatory

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    摘要:

    【目的】为了探索黔南暴雨天气的分布特征及成因。【方法】基于黔南州 195 个加密区域站的暴雨数据及高精度格点海拔资料,采用统计、气候倾向率、线性回归、ArcGIS 等方法,对黔南州 2015—2024 年的暴雨进行分析。【结果】黔南暴雨时间分布不均,年平均 738 站次,以每年 10 站次的趋势减少,以 1 033 站次为最多(2020 年),以 501 站次为最少(2023 年)。暴雨峰值在 6 月 中旬,大暴雨峰值在 6 月下旬,均呈单峰型分布,10 月—次年 4 月 中旬暴雨仅占全年的 11% , 10 月下旬—次年3 月上旬没有大暴雨出现,6 月为暴雨集中期。暴雨和大暴雨分布呈南多北少的特征,黔南东部的低洼地区和西部的峡谷区是暴雨和大暴雨高频中心,东南部的山地是暴雨中心。黔南暴雨高频中心的地形特点为海拔较低和向南开口的喇叭口地形,南部海拔较低,当南部海洋上暖湿气流向北输送时,水汽和能量容易在低海拔地区聚集,促使暴雨天气的发生。【结论】研究揭示了黔南州暴雨分布特征以及暴雨高频中心的地形特点,为提升暴雨的预报服务能力提供科学依据,从而降低或减少暴雨天气带来的损失。

    Abstract:

    Abstract : To investigate the distribution characteristics and causes of rainstorms in Qiannan Prefecture of Guizhou Province , based on torrential rain data observed by 195 regional stations at a high frequency in Qiannan Prefecture and high-precision gridded elevation data , we analyze the rainstorm events in Qiannan from 2015 to 2024 by means of statistical analysis , climatic tendency rate , linear regression , and ArcGIS methods . The results show that over the past decade , torrential rain events in Qiannan exhibited significant temporal heterogeneity , with an annual average of 738 station/times . The rainstorm frequency demonstrated a linear decreasing trend of 10 station/times per year , peaking at 1 033 station/times in 2020 and getting down to its lowest with 501 station/times in 2023 . The ten- day distributions of torrential rain and heavy rainstorm both displayed a single-peak pattern . Torrential rain peaked in mid-June , while heavy rainstorm peaked in late June . Torrential rain events from October to mid-April accounted for only 11% of the annual severe precipitation events , with no torrential rain recorded between late October and the next early March . Approximately 89% of annual torrential rain events were concentrated between May and September , with June being the peak period . Spatially , both torrential and heavy rainstorms showed higher frequency in southern part of Qiannan Prefecture . The low-lying areas in eastern Qiannan and the canyon zones in the west were the high-frequency centers of both torrential and heavy torrential rain . Mountainous areas in the southeast served as torrential rain centers but not heavy rainstorm centers . Topographically, high-frequency torrential rain centers were characterized by relatively low elevations and southward-opening funnel-shaped terrain . The lower altitudes in southern areas facilitated the convergence and energy accumulation of warm-moist air currents that were transported northward from oceanic sources , promoting the occurrence of torrential rain . This study reveals the distribution patterns of torrential rain in Qiannan Prefecture and the topographic features of the high-frequency centers of rainstorms , which could provide a scientific basis for enhancing forecasting capabilities and mitigating losses caused by torrential rain events .

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谢亚玲,刘金洋,龙宇芸,等.基于黔南区域站暴雨天气分布特征及成因分析[J].山地气象学报,2025,49(6):93-99.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-27
  • 最后修改日期:2025-08-06
  • 录用日期:2025-08-09
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-29
  • 出版日期: 2025-12-08
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