气候变化对心脑血管发病风险评估研究 — 以重庆市巫溪县为例
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1.贵州省黔西南布依族苗族自治州气象局;2.成都信息工程大学

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2023 年度黔西南州科技计划项目(2023 - 4 - 87)


Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease Risk: A Case Study of Wuxi County , Chongqing
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1.Meteorological Bureau of Qianxinan Prefecture;2.School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology

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    摘要:

    【目的】为定量评估气候变化对心脑血管疾病发病风险。【方法】利用重庆市巫溪县 1971—2020 年国家站点逐日气象观测资料和 2017—2020 年心脑血管疾病发病人数门诊资料,使用相关性分析法、“黄金分割率 ”人体舒适度计算法、发病风险效应计算法等,定量评估巫溪县气候变化对心脑血管发病风险效应。【结果】1) 重庆市巫溪县心脑血管疾病发病人数与日平均气温和体感温度呈显著负相关,相关系数分别为 - 0 . 168 和 - 0 . 185 , 与 日相对湿度呈显著正相关,相关系数为0. 108 , 且都通过了 α= 0 . 01 的显著相关性检验,心脑血管疾病发病人数存在明显的低温效应。2) 从年代际变化来看,重庆市巫溪县夏季增加了 12 d , 冬季减少了 13 d , 当地居民心脑血管疾病发病人数日占比有明显的季节变化,夏季发病人数日占比为0. 24% , 冬季发病人数日占比为 0 . 32% , 夏季延长、冬季缩短,计算出当地居民心脑血管疾病发病风险值为 - 1 . 28% ;不同舒适域等级日数的改变,计算出当地居民心脑血管疾病发病风险值为 - 0 . 8% 。【结论】无论是受全球气候变暖影响的夏季延长,还是舒适域等级日数增加,对重庆市巫溪县心脑血管疾病发病风险都有降低作用。

    Abstract:

    Abstract : To quantitatively assess the impact of climate change on the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases , using the 1971 - 2020 daily meteorological observation data from the national station in Wuxi County, Chongqing , and outpatient records of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease cases in the same period , this study quantitatively assesses the impact of climate change on disease risk by means of correlation analysis , the " Golden Section " human comfort index method , and disease risk effect calculation . The results show that :1) The number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease cases in Wuxi County is significantly negatively correlated with daily mean temperature ( r = - 0 . 168) and apparent temperature ( r = - 0 . 185) , but positively correlated with relative humidity ( r = 0 . 108) ( all p < 0 . 01) . A pronounced low - temperature effect has been observed . 2) Interdecadal data reveal a 12 - day summer increase and 13 - day winter decrease in Wuxi County.The daily proportion of local residents suffering from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases shows significant seasonal variations . Daily disease case proportion is 0 . 24% (summer) and 0 . 32% ( winter) . The extended summer and shortened winter periods results in a calculated - 1 . 28% change in local residents "" disease risk . Additionally , variations in the number of days within different comfort index ranges contribute to a - 0 . 8% change in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease risk . It is evident that both the warming-induced shifts in seasonal length and the altered distribution of thermal comfort days exert risk-reducing effects on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Wuxi County.

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瞿冲,杨春艳,王式功,等.气候变化对心脑血管发病风险评估研究 — 以重庆市巫溪县为例[J].山地气象学报,2025,49(5):72-78.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-11
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-02
  • 录用日期:2025-07-02
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-03
  • 出版日期: 2025-10-30
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