GA_MotionRNN:生成式雷达回波临近预报模型
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1.江西省气象台;2.气候变化风险与气象灾害防御江西省重点实验室;3.南昌国家气候观象台;4.贵州省山地气象科学研究所

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江西省气象局青年人才培养项目(JX2023Q06);江西省气象局创新团队(JXCX202304);黔西南州科技局项目(2023- 4 - 88);贵州省气象局省市联合科研基金项目(黔气科合 SS〔2023〕38 号);贵州省科技厅 2025 年贵州省基础研究计划(自资助项目:江西省气象局青年人才培养项目(JX2023Q06);江西省气象局创新团队(JXCX202304);黔西南州科技局项目(2023然科学)面上项目(黔科合基础 - zk〔2025〕面上 319) 。


A Generative Radar Echo Nowcasting Model: GA-MotionRNN
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1.Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory;2.Jiangxi Key Laboratory of Climate Change Risk and Meteorological Disaster Prevention;3.Nanchang National Climate Observatory;4.Guizhou Institute of Mountain Meteorological Science

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    摘要:

    【目的】解决雷达回波外推法在临近预报中时效有限、长距离预报准确率低,以及预报图像模糊、空报、低估等问题。【方法】利用 2021-2023 年 3-9 月江西省及其周边区域的雷达组合反射率拼图数据构建训练集和测试集,将视频预测模型 MotionRNN 与视频分类模型(Video Vision Transformer, ViViT) 相融合,提出了生成式模型 GA_MotionRNN, 实现了未来 2 h逐 6 min 的雷达回波精准外推。采用结构相似性指数(Structural similarity, SSIM) 结合均方误差(Mean Square Error, MSE) 和二元交叉熵(Binary Cross Entropy, BCE)构建损失函数训练该网络以学习更真实的雷达回波时空分布特征。【结果】GA_Motion_ RNN 模型在 20、30、40、50 dBz 反射率阈值下的临界成功指数(CSI) 、命中率(POD)指标达到 0. 681 4 和 0. 816 4, 均优于光流法及现有深度学习模型。在长距离预报时,GA_MotionRNN 仍能保持较高的外推准确率。【结论】GA_MotionRNN 不仅对强回波中心的位置预报好于其他深度学习模型,还能保留更多细节信息,有效改善了深度学习方法中常有的输出图像模糊、细节信息丢失等问题。

    Abstract:

    Nowcasting is crucial for the prevention and mitigation of extreme weather events. At present, radar echo extrapolation is still the primary technique used in nowcasting due to the high spatio_temporal resolution of weather radar data, but this algorithm has some problems, such as limited lead time, low accuracy of long_distance prediction, fuzzy prediction images, false alarms and underestimation, etc.. To address these problems, a novel model, GA_MotionRNN, is proposed in this study, which integrates MotionRNN and video vision transformer (ViViT) architectures within a generative adversarial framework, incorporating a gradient_based structural similarity loss function, achieving the accurate extrapolation of 6 min radar echo in 2 h. In this study, the training set and test set are constructed by using the composite reflectivity mosaic data of Jiangxi Province and its surrounding areas from March to September in 2021 - 2023. The loss function is constructed by using the structural similarity index (SSIM) combined with Mean Square Error (MSE) and Binary Cross Entropy (BCE) to train the network to learn more real spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of radar echoes. The results show that the critical success index (CSI) and probability of detection (POD) of GA_MotionRNN are the highest at all the reflectivity thresholds of 20 dBz, 30 dBz, 40 dBz, and 50 dBz, reaching maximum scores of 0. 6814 and 0. 8164, respectively, and all are superior to those by the optical flow method and deep learning models. Moreover, GA_MotionRNN can still maintain high extrapolation accuracy in long_distance predictions. The case analysis shows that GA_MotionRNN can not only predict the position of the strong echo center better than other deep learning models, but can also retain more detailed information, which effectively solves the common problems of fuzzy output image and loss of detailed information in deep learning methods.

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周则成,吴静,陈云辉,等. GA_MotionRNN:生成式雷达回波临近预报模型[J].山地气象学报,2026,50(2):132-140.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-27
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-13
  • 录用日期:2025-06-18
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-20
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