基于MaxEnt模型湖南龙山百合气候品质评价研究
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1.气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室;2.洞庭湖国家气候观象台;3.湖南省祁阳市气象局;4.湖南省龙山县气象局;5.湖南省气象服务中心

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湖南省林业厅油茶产业科研示范项目;湖南省气象局重点项目(CXFZ2023 _ZDZX02) 。


Evaluation of Climatic Quality of Longshan Lily Based on MaxEnt Model
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1.Hunan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation;2.Dongting Lake National Climatological Observatory;3.Qiyang Meteorological Officeof Hunan Province;4.Longshan Meteorological Station of Hunan Province;5.Hunan Meteorological Service Center

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    摘要:

    【目的】基于最大熵 MaxEnt 模型筛选影响龙山百合品质的关键气象因子,构建气候品质评价模型,以期为保障龙山百合优质生产及气候资源高效利用提供参考依据。【方法】以湖南龙山百合为研究对象,基于 2014-2023 年其主产区气象数据及品质检测数据,采用相关性分析联合 MaxEnt 模型,筛选影响龙山百合气候品质的关键气象因子,并通过主成分分析赋予权重,确定气候品质评价指数,构建龙山百合气候品质评价模型。【结果】共筛选出营养期相对湿度、珠芽期日最低气温及日照时数、鳞茎膨大期日照时数、成熟-采收期降水量及平均气温、3 月上旬-8 月下旬平均气温等 7 项关键气象因子,其中鳞茎膨大期日照时数(贡献率 72. 0%) 、珠芽期平均日最低气温(10. 8%) 、3 月上旬-8 月下旬平均气温(7. 5%) 以及营养期平均相对湿度(6. 2%)为核心指标。2014-2023 年气候品质评价指数介于 2. 053. 00, 均达到“优 ”及以上级别,与实际总糖含量等级基本吻合。【结论】龙山县整体气候条件适宜百合优质生产,采用 MaxEnt 模型能有效识别影响龙山百合气候品质的关键气象因子,构建的评价模型具有较高可靠性,可为同类特色经济作物气候品质评价提供参考。

    Abstract:

    The purpose of this study is to identify key meteorological factors influencing the quality of Longshan lily, construct a climate_quality evaluation model based on the MaxE nt model, and provide reference guidance for ensuring high_quality production of Longshan lily and efficiently utilizing climate resources. By using meteorological data from Longshan County in 2014 - 2023 and quality test data, as well as the correlation analysis method combined with the MaxE nt model, this paper selects key meteorological factors, and then principal component analysis is employed to assign weights to these factors, determine the climate_quality evaluation index, and construct Longshan lily climate_quality evaluation model. The results reveal that a total of seven key meteorological factors are selected, including relative humidity during the vegetative period, the daily minimum temperature and sunshine hours during the bulb bud period, sunshine hours during the bulb expansion period, precipitation and average temperature during the mature harvest period, and the average temperature from the first ten days of March to the end of August. Among them, the sunshine hours during the bulb expansion period (with a contribution rate of 72. 0%), the average daily minimum temperature during the bulb bud period (10. 8%), the average temperature during the bulb main growth period (7. 5%), and the average relative humidity in vegetative period (6. 2%) are identified as the core indicators. The climate_quality evaluation indexes for Longshan County between 2014 and 2023 ranged from 2. 05 to 3. 00, and all reached the " excellent " level or above, which shows a consistency rate of 80% with the actual total sugar content grade. Therefore, the overall climate conditions in Longshan County are suitable for high_quality production of Longshan lily, and the use of the MaxE nt model can effectively identify key meteorological factors influencing the quality of Longshan lily. The evaluation model constructed in this study has a high degree of reliability and could provide a good reference for the climate quality evaluation of specialty crops.

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谢佰承,唐佳琳,李仁权,等.基于MaxEnt模型湖南龙山百合气候品质评价研究[J].山地气象学报,2026,50(3):61-66.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-25
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-09
  • 录用日期:2025-10-16
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-11
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