河北省极端气候变化对农业碳排放影响研究
DOI:
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

1.中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室;2.河北省气象与现代经济重点实验室;3.河北省承德市气象局

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

承德市科技计划项目(202503A172);承德国家可持续发展议程创新示范区建设科技专项(202202F001)


Study on the Influence of Extreme Climate Change on Agricultural Carbon Emission in Hebei Province
Author:
Affiliation:

1.China Meteorological Administration of Xiongn Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory;2.Hebei Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Modern Economy;3.Chengde Meteorological Office of Hebei Province

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    【目的】探索极端气候对农业碳排放的影响,为农业生产应对气候变化提供理论依据。【方法】基于 1993-2022年河北省 142 个气象站逐日降水量、最高气温、最低气温及相关农业统计数据,计算河北省极端气候指数及农业碳排放量、碳排放强度并分析其特征。【结果】研究期内,TN10P、TX10P 呈下降趋势,TN90P、TX90P 呈上升趋势,R95p、SDII、R10 均呈上升趋势,CWD 呈下降趋势。TN10P 的线性趋势为从北至南逐渐降低,TN90P 的空间分布规律与 TN10P 的相反,TX10P 在承德地区及张家口西部为上升趋势,其他地区基本为下降趋势;R95p 变化幅度较大,高值区分布在沧州市;SDII 空间分布趋势与R95p 类似,但变化幅度较小;CWD 的变化幅度最小,高值区主要分布在邢台市、石家庄市和衡水市;R10 的高值中心在石家庄市,整体呈增加趋势。河北省农业碳排放量呈先升后降趋势,以农地利用和牲畜养殖为主,施用化肥引起的碳排放量在农地利用中占比最多,牛引起的碳排放量在肠道发酵中占比最多,猪引起的碳排放量在粪便管理中占比最多。R95p、SDII、R10 对农业碳排放量存在显著抑制作用,TX10P 存在显著促进作用;TN90P 对农业碳排放强度存在显著抑制作用,TN10P、TX10P 存在显著促进作用。【结论】研究成果为河北省加速实现“双碳”目标、提升农业应对气候变化能力及实施乡村振兴战略提供参考和依据。

    Abstract:

    To explore the impact of extreme climate on agricultural carbon emissions and provide a theoretical basis for agricultural production to cope with climate change, this paper analyzes the spatio_temporal evolution of extreme temperature and precipitation indices in Hebei Province from 1993 to 2022 and their responses to agricultural carbon emissions. By using the daily precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relevant agricultural statistical data collected by 142 meteorological stations in Hebei Province in 1993 - 2022., we calculate the extreme climate index, agricultural carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity in Hebei Province and analyze their characteristics. The results show that during the study period, TN10P, TX10P and CWD showed a downward trend, while TN90P, TX90P, R95p, SDII and R10 were all in an upward trend. The linear trend of TN10P was a gradual declining trend from north to south in Hebei Province, and the spatial distribution of TN90P was the opposite to that of TN10P. For TX10P, it presented an upward trend in Chengde and the west of Zhangjiakou, but in other regions it was basically downward. The change amplitude of R95p was large and its high_value area was distributed in Cangzhou City. The spatial distribution trend of SDII was similar to that of R95p, but the change range was small. The change range of CWD was the smallest with high_value areas mainly in Xingtai, Shijiazhuang and Hengshui. The high_value center of R10 was in Shijiazhuang city with an increasing trend overall. During the study period in Province, agricultural carbon emissions ere increasing first and then decreasing, mainly contributed by agricultural land use and livestock breeding. The carbon emissions caused by chemical fertilizer accounted for the largest proportion in agricultural land use, the carbon emissions caused by cattle accounted for the largest proportion in intestinal fermentation, and the carbon emissions caused by pigs accounted for the largest proportion in manure management. R95p, SDII and R10 significantly inhibited agricultural carbon emissions, but TX10P played a function of significantly promoting agricultural carbon emissions. TN90P had a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity, while TN10P and TX10P had significant promoting effects on it. These findings could provide some scientific references for accelerating the achievement of the " dual carbon emission " goals and enhance the adaptation of agriculture to climate change in Hebei Province.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

王玉玲,彭九慧,盖宇函,等.河北省极端气候变化对农业碳排放影响研究[J].山地气象学报,2026,50(2):75-82.

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-03-11
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-07
  • 录用日期:2025-06-10
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-20
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码