Abstract:Abstract : This study aims to analyze the variation trends and extreme precipitation characteristics of precipitation in Taijiang County from 1960 to 2023 , reveal the regional precipitation response mechanisms under the mountainous climate background , and provide scientific support for water resource management and disaster prevention and mitigation . Using the methods of trend analysis , Mann-Kendall test and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ( DFA) , as well as the extreme value theory , this paper systematically investigates the variation trends , abrupt change characteristics , long-range correlations , periodicities , and recurrence periods of extreme events for annual precipitation and annual maximum daily precipitation . The block maxima method and threshold excess method are employed for extreme value fitting , with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov ( K-S) test used to evaluate the performance of models . The results are as follows : Annual precipitation in Taijiang County presents a slight downward trend , while annual maximum daily precipitation exhibits a minor upward trend , neither of which is statistically significant. Decadal analysis reveals notable fluctuations in precipitation , with no significant long-term trend or abrupt changes , indicating the relative stability in the precipitation system of Taijiang County. DFA analysis shows that the Hurst indices for annual precipitation and annual maximum daily precipitation are 0 . 73 and 0 . 71 , respectively , which has strong long-range positive correlations and suggests that the current trends may be sustained in future . Periodicity analysis identifies a quasi-period of approximately 22 years for annual precipitation , but no significant periodicity is found for annual maximum daily precipitation . Extreme value analysis indicates that precipitation extremes mainly vary in the range from 50 mm to 80 mm using both the block maxima and threshold excess methods . The K-S test demonstrates comparable fitting performance between the two methods , with the threshold excess method slightly outperforming the other. This study has revealed the stability and potential persistence characteristics of the precipitation system in Taijiang County under mountainous conditions , and could provide important insights for the research on climate change responses in complex mountainous areas .