台江县近 64 a 降水量变化趋势与不同重现期日 降水量极值分布特征
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黔东南州气象局

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国家自然科学基金项目(42165001) ;贵州省气象局省市联合科研基金项目(黔气科合 SS〔2023〕33 号)


Variation Trend of Precipitation and Distribution Characteristics of Daily Precipitation Extremes under Different Reoccurrence Periods in Taijiang County over the Past 64 Years
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Qiandongnan Meteorological Bureau

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    【目的】揭示山地气候背景下区域降水响应机制,为水资源管理与防灾减灾提供科学支撑。【方法】采用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall 检验、DFA 法及极值理论,系统研究台江县 1960—2023 年期间年降水量与年最大日降水量的变化趋势、突变特征、长程相关性、周期性及极端事件重现期;利用块极大值法与阈值超额法进行极值拟合,并通过 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 检验评估模型优劣。【结果】台江县年降水量呈微弱下降趋势,年最大日降水量呈略上升趋势,两者变化均不显著;年代际分析显示降水量存在明显波动性,未出现显著的长期趋势和突变现象,表明台江县降水情况相对稳定。DFA 分析显示,年降水量与年最大日降水量的 Hurst 指数分别为 0 . 73 和 0 . 71 , 具有较强长程正相关性,预示未来趋势可能延续。周期分析发现,年降水量存在约 22 a 的准周期,而年最大日降水量无显著周期特征。极值分析表明,块极大值法与阈值超额法均显示降水极值主要集中在 50 ~ 80 mm 之间,Kolmogorov-Smirnov 检验表明 2 种方法拟合效果接近,其中阈值超额法略优。【结论】该文揭示山地环境下台江县降水情况的稳定性与潜在持续性特征,为复杂山地气候变化响应研究提供重要参考。

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    Abstract : This study aims to analyze the variation trends and extreme precipitation characteristics of precipitation in Taijiang County from 1960 to 2023 , reveal the regional precipitation response mechanisms under the mountainous climate background , and provide scientific support for water resource management and disaster prevention and mitigation . Using the methods of trend analysis , Mann-Kendall test and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ( DFA) , as well as the extreme value theory , this paper systematically investigates the variation trends , abrupt change characteristics , long-range correlations , periodicities , and recurrence periods of extreme events for annual precipitation and annual maximum daily precipitation . The block maxima method and threshold excess method are employed for extreme value fitting , with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov ( K-S) test used to evaluate the performance of models . The results are as follows : Annual precipitation in Taijiang County presents a slight downward trend , while annual maximum daily precipitation exhibits a minor upward trend , neither of which is statistically significant. Decadal analysis reveals notable fluctuations in precipitation , with no significant long-term trend or abrupt changes , indicating the relative stability in the precipitation system of Taijiang County. DFA analysis shows that the Hurst indices for annual precipitation and annual maximum daily precipitation are 0 . 73 and 0 . 71 , respectively , which has strong long-range positive correlations and suggests that the current trends may be sustained in future . Periodicity analysis identifies a quasi-period of approximately 22 years for annual precipitation , but no significant periodicity is found for annual maximum daily precipitation . Extreme value analysis indicates that precipitation extremes mainly vary in the range from 50 mm to 80 mm using both the block maxima and threshold excess methods . The K-S test demonstrates comparable fitting performance between the two methods , with the threshold excess method slightly outperforming the other. This study has revealed the stability and potential persistence characteristics of the precipitation system in Taijiang County under mountainous conditions , and could provide important insights for the research on climate change responses in complex mountainous areas .

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杨胜忠,黄大卫,谢佳豪.台江县近 64 a 降水量变化趋势与不同重现期日 降水量极值分布特征[J].山地气象学报,2025,49(6):43-48.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-10
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-28
  • 录用日期:2025-08-01
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-29
  • 出版日期: 2025-12-08
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