洱海流域极端短时强降水过程的双偏振雷达特征
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1.云南省大理白族自治州气象局;2.云南省玉溪市气象局

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云南省气象局高原湖泊生态气象服务创新团队项目(2022CX08);大理州科技局基础研究专项(20242901A020009)


Dual_Polarization Radar Characteristics of Extreme Short_time Heavy Precipitation Processes in the Erhai Lake Basin
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1.Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Officeof Yunnan Province;2.Yuxi Meteorological Officeof Yunnan Province

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    摘要:

    【目的】加强洱海流域的 C 波段双偏振雷达在强降水天气中的监测及应用。【方法】使用地面气象站的逐分钟、逐小时降水量数据,ERA5 再分析数据及大理 C 波段双偏振雷达数据,采用天气学诊断分析及雷达图像分析法,对 2024 年 9 月 1 日凌晨洱海流域出现的 1 次短时强降水过程进行分析。【结果】此次过程共出现 3 站次极端短时强降水,最大雨强 63. 4 mm/h。短时强降水发生在副高外围东南气流影响下,该气流为强降水提供了重要水汽,中低层水汽辐合加强且辐合厚度增厚是降水增强的重要动力机制;短时强降水发生前 2 h 不稳定层结增强,有利于大气上升运动,成云致雨。洱海西岸 9 月 1 日凌晨出现约 2 h 的对流性降雨,多单体回波自南向北生成发展造成了多站次短时强降水,强对流单体最强回波中心强度达 60. 5 dBz,回波顶高普遍超过 9 km(最高 14 km), 垂直液态水含量超过 20 kg/m2, 雷达 1 h 降水估测对极端强降水有良好的预示作用。 3 个极端短时强降水站点相关系数 ρhv 值均超过 0. 95, 地面以降水的形式呈现;多数站点差分反射率 ZDR 与雨强、6 min 降水量的变化同步,部分站点 ZDR 变化超前地面 6 min 降水量 2 个体扫;KDP 与降水强度呈正线性相关,基本同步或超前 12 个体扫。 【结论】研究结论为洱海流域短时强降水的预报预警提供参考依据。

    Abstract:

    To enhance the monitoring and application of the C _band dual_polarization radar in intense precipitation weather in the Erhai Lake Basin, this paper uses minutely and hourly precipitation data from surface meteorological stations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and Dali C _band dual_polarization radar data, as well as the synoptic diagnostic analysis and radar image analysis methods, to analyze a short_time intense precipitation process that occurred in the Erhai Lake Basin in the early morning of September 1, 2024. It is found that a total of 3 station/times of extreme short_time intense precipitation occurred during this process, with the maximum rainfall intensity reaching 63. 4 mm/h. The short_time intense precipitation occurred under the influence of the southeasterly airflow in the periphery of the subtropical high, which provided important water vapor for the intense precipitation. The strengthening of water vapor convergence in the middle and lower layers and the thickening of the convergence thickness were important dynamic factors for the enhancement of precipitation. The unstable stratification was enhanced 2 h before the occurrence of intense precipitation, which was conducive to the upward 163. com。 motion of the atmosphere, forming clouds and causing rain. Severe convective rainfall lasting about 2 h occurred on the west bank of Erhai Lake in the early morning of September 1. Multi_cell echoes were generated and developed from south to north, causing multiple stations/times of short_time intense precipitation. The maximum echo center intensity of the strong convective cells reached 60. 5 dBz, the echo top height generally exceeded 9 km (the highest was 14 km), and the vertical liquid water content exceeded 20 kg/m2. The radar_estimated precipitation OHP had a good predictive effect on extreme intense precipitation. The correlation coefficient values of the three extreme short_time intense precipitation stations all exceeded 0. 95, and the precipitation was presented in the phase of the surfacerainfall to the surface. The changes of differential reflectivity ZDR at most stations were synchronous with the changes of rainfall intensity and 6 min precipitation, and the ZDR changes at some stations preceded the surface 6 min precipitation by two volume scans. KDP had a positive linear correlation with precipitation intensity, being basically synchronous or one to two volume scans ahead. The research conclusions could be a reference basis for forecasting and early warning of short_time intense precipitation in the Erhai Lake Basin.

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钟爱华,周泓.洱海流域极端短时强降水过程的双偏振雷达特征[J].山地气象学报,2026,50(3):12-19.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-04
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-10
  • 录用日期:2025-11-13
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-11
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