强降雨短临预报告警和智能分发技术研究
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贵州省气象台

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中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室项目(23SWQXM023) ;贵州省气象局省市联合科研基金项目( 黔气科合 SS 〔2023〕05 号)。


Research on Nowcasting Warning and Intelligent Distribution Technology for Heavy Rainfall
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Guizhou Meteorological Observatory

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    摘要:

    【目的】为打破传统气象短临监测、预报的局限性,提升短临业务的精细化、智能化水平。【方法】融合多源数据研发强降雨短临预报告警产品。【结果】实现了精细化至乡镇、分钟级实时滚动更新的强降雨短临预报预警客观指导,并开发聊天机器人系统实现产品实时智能分发。系统已在贵州省级气象部门实际业务部署,省、市、县三级气象部门推广使用。对比个例,该产品发布时间平均提前实际暴雨预警信号发布时间 17 min;对比近 3 a 预警信号检验结果,发现 2024 年系统产品部署后在值班预报员响应等客观因素共同作用下,全省暴雨预警信号提前量提升 16 min、命中率提升 0 . 12% 。【结论】该文研发的强降雨短临预报告警产品及聊天机器人,提升了短临业务的精细化与智能化水平,对基层气象台站预警发布业务具有重要支撑作用。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: To overcome the limitations of traditional meteorological nowcasting monitoring and forecasting , and enhance the refinement and intelligence levels of nowcasting operations , this paper integrates multiple sources of data and develops a nowcasting warning product of heavy rainfall . This product enables objective guidance for nowcasting warnings of heavy rainfall with a refinement level down to the township level and real-time rolling updates at minutely level . Additionally , a chatbot is developed to achieve real-time and intelligent distribution of the product. This system has been deployed in the actual operations of the Guizhou provincial meteorological department and has been promoted for use in meteorological departments at the provincial , municipal , and county levels . Compared to individual cases , the release time of this product is , on average , 17 min ahead of the actual release time of rainstorm warning signals . When compared to the test results of warning signals in the past three years , the lead time of rainstorm warning signals across the province has increased by 16 min and the hit rate has increased by 0 . 12% after the deployment of the system product in 2024 and under the combined effect of objective factors such as the response of duty forecasters . The nowcasting warning product for heavy rainfall and the chatbot developed in this paper have improved the refinement and intelligence levels of nowcasting operations , which is an important support in the warning release operations of grassroots meteorological stations .

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唐远志,杨静,李彦霖,等.强降雨短临预报告警和智能分发技术研究[J].山地气象学报,2025,49(6):112-117.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-28
  • 最后修改日期:2025-08-04
  • 录用日期:2025-08-05
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-29
  • 出版日期: 2025-12-08
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