基于 Bi-GRU 的流溪河水库小时级来水量 预报方法研究
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1.贵州新气象科技有限责任公司;2.贵州省黔东南苗族侗族自治州气象服务中心;3.广州市气象综合保障中心;4.武汉轻工大学数学与计算机学院

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珠江流域(华南区域)气象科研开放基金项目(ZJLY202306) 。


Research on Bi-GRU-Based Hourly Inflow Forecasting Method for Liuxihe Reservoir
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1.Guizhou New Meteorological Technology Co . , Ltd .;2.Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Service Center of Guizhou Province;3.Guangzhou Meteorological Comprehensive Support Center;4.School of Mathematics and Computer Science , Wuhan Polytechnic University

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    摘要:

    【目的】为解决小流域在缺乏历史观测数据条件下的水文径流预报难题,并克服传统模型对长期历史数据的依赖及纯数据驱动模型受限于数据质量和特征选择等问题。【方法】提出一种融合物理约束的 Bi-GRU(双向门控循环单元)深度学习模型,用于小时尺度的入流预报。以流溪河水库流域为研究区域,首先利用 12 m 高分辨率数字高程模型(DEM) 提取关键地形特征;随后结合网格插值和随机森林算法缓解气象数据空间分布不均的问题;引入物理约束机制以优化特征选择,确保水文一致性;最后构建 Bi-GRU 网络,捕捉径流过程中的复杂时间依赖关系。【结果】该方法在低水期与高水期分别达到了 0 . 90 和 0 . 96 的 Nash-Sutcliffe 效率系数(NSE) , 展现出良好的预测性能。【结论】研究为监测稀疏区域的水文预报提供了新思路,具有重要的实际应用价值。

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    Abstract : To address the challenge of forecasting water inflow in small watersheds lacking historical observation data and to overcome the limitations of traditional hydrological models that require long-term time series and purely data-driven models constrained by data quality and feature selection , this article proposes an hourly-scale inflow forecasting method based on a physically-informed Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit ( Bi-GRU) deep learning framework . The Liuxihe Reservoir watershed is taken as a study area. The key topographic features is firstly extracted from a high-resolution ( 12 m ) digital elevation model ( DEM ) . Then , the issue of uneven spatial distribution of meteorological data inputs is addressed by a combination of grid-based interpolation and the Random Forest algorithm. A physical constraint mechanism is integrated into the model to guide feature selection , ensuring hydrological consistency. Finally , the Bi-GRU network is trained to capture complex temporal dependencies during the runoff generation . The experiment results show that the proposed approach can achieve high predictive accuracy , with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficients reaching 0 . 90 during low-flow periods and 0 . 96 during high-flow periods . This study demonstrates a promising solution for inflow prediction in data-scarce basins and has an important application value in the operation of hydrological forecasting.

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曾莉萍,陶勇,熊永花,等.基于 Bi-GRU 的流溪河水库小时级来水量 预报方法研究[J].山地气象学报,2026,50(1):106-112.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-12
  • 最后修改日期:2025-09-24
  • 录用日期:2025-09-26
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-10
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