云南西部 “1262 ”暴雨特征分析
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保山市气象局

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云南省气象局基层台站气象科技创新与能力提升计划(STIAP202318 、STIAP202219)


Analysis of the Characteristics of " 1262 " Rainstorms in Western Yunnan
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Meteorological Bureau of Baoshan City

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    【目的】深入了解云南西部“1262 ”暴雨时空特征,提升“1262 ”精细化预报预警能力。【方法】利用云南西部 745 个区域自动站和国家站逐小时降水观测资料以及 ERA5 再分析资料,统计分析了 2019—2023 年汛期“1262 ”暴雨时空分布特征及12 h 极端暴雨过程的大气环境特征。【结果】1)2 h 暴雨呈逐年增多的趋势,6、12 h 暴雨年变化趋势一致且波动较大,暴雨月变化规律一致,呈单峰型,8 月最多,5 月最少,暴雨主要集中发生在凌晨至上午时段(03—11 时);57 . 8% 以上的暴雨伴有≥20 mm/ h 的短时强降水;2)2、6、12 h 暴雨年平均站次分别为 0. 3 、1 . 1 、1 . 8 次/a , 暴雨区主要位于德宏西部、保山西部、临沧西部,尤以德宏昔马为最,随历时增加暴雨区逐渐扩大,2 h 暴雨在云南西部发生频率总体较低;3)统计分析 5 次 12 h 极端暴雨大气环境特征发现,在极端暴雨过程中均有多个极端异常的动力、水汽、热力物理量相互配合,不同过程中的水汽异常充沛一致性较好,700 hPa 比湿极值范围为 12. 5 ~ 14 . 1 g/kg,整层可降水量极值范围为 69 . 4 ~ 90 . 1 mm , 为气候平均的 1 . 9 ~ 2 . 8 倍。【结论】分析得出云南西部“1262 ”暴雨时空分布特征,以及极端暴雨过程中大气环境参数特征,为提升“1262 ”精细化预报提供参考。

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    Abstract: Based on the hourly precipitation observation data from 745 regional automatic stations and national stations in western Yunnan and the ERA5 reanalysis data , this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the " 1262 " rainstorms during the flood seasons from 2019 to 2023 and the atmospheric environmental characteristics of 12 h extreme rainstorm processes . The results show that :1) The 2 h rainstorms present a yearly increasing trend , and the annual variation trends of the 6 h and 12 h rainstorms are consistent and fluctuate obviously. The monthly variations of rainstorms are consistent , showing a unimodal pattern , with the most occurrence frequency found in August and the fewest in May. Rainstorms are mainly concentrated in the period from early morning to morning (from 03:00 to 11:00) . More than 57 . 8% of the rainstorms are accompanied by short- time severe precipitation with an intensity of ≥20 mm/h . 2) The frequencies of 2 h , 6 h and 12 h rainstorms are 0 . 3 times/year , 1 . 1 times/year and 1 . 8 times/year , respectively. The rainstorm areas aree mainly located in the western parts of Dehong , Baoshan and Lincang, especially in Xima of Dehong. The rainstorm areas gradually get expanded with the adding duration of rainstorms . The occurrence frequency of 2 h rainstorms in western Yunnan is relatively low. 3) Statistical analysis of the atmospheric environmental characteristics of five extreme 12 h rainstorm processes show that in the extreme rainstorm processes , multiple extremely abnormal dynamic , water vapor , and thermodynamic physical quantities cooperate well with each other. The consistency of abnormally abundant water vapor in different processes is relatively good. The maximum specific humidity at 700 hPa ranges from 12. 5 to 14 . 1 g/kg , and the extreme values of the vertically integrated precipitable water is in the range from 69 . 4 to 90. 1 mm , which is 1 . 9 to 2. 8 times the climate average . In conclusion , these analyzed spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the " 1262 " rainstorms in western Yunnan and the characteristics of atmospheric environmental parameters during the extreme rainstorm process could provide a reference for improving the refined forecast of " 1262 " rainstorms .

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杜铠炫,杨茹娅,尹雯,等.云南西部 “1262 ”暴雨特征分析[J].山地气象学报,2025,49(6):36-42.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-08
  • 录用日期:2025-04-23
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-29
  • 出版日期: 2025-12-08
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