长沙1次深秋超大冰雹的成因及预警初探
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湖南省气象台

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湖南省气象局2025年创新发展专项(CXFZ2025-MSXM06);湖南省气象局重点项目(XOKI21A004)。


A Preliminary Study on the Causes and Early Warning of a Late Autumn Severe Hail Event in Changsha
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Hunan Meteorological Observatory

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    摘要:

    【目的】湖南秋季冰雹少见,2023年11月9日长沙出现罕见深秋超大冰雹,为探究其成因及演变过程。【方法】基于观测资料、再分析资料及长沙双偏振雷达资料,分析对流发生前的环境场特征及对流演变的雷达回波特征,并探讨风暴参数演变对此次过程的预警指示意义。【结果】1)强降雹发生在高空槽和低层低涡东移的环流背景下,大气为条件性不稳定层结,低层辐合线的上升运动将气块抬升到自由对流高度以上,强对流触发,同时适宜的-20℃和湿球0℃层高度有利于强降雹发生。2)热力条件一般,对流发生前K指数、850 hPa和500 hPa的温差低于春季降雹的经验阈值;水汽条件和动力条件较好,伴随差分反射率因子(ZDR柱)上升气流的发展和维持是本次大冰雹过程的驱动因子之一。3)ZDR柱与上升气流区对应,ZDR低值带和"差分相移率因子(KDP)足"对应的下沉气流扩展至近地面,结合KDP和相关系数(CC)等双偏振参数有利于判断冰雹相态及尺寸。4)发展阶段最大反射率因子(DBZM)增大、DBZM高度(HT)发展到冰雹的有效增长层、回波顶高(TOP)增高和垂直液态含水量(VIL)跃增,其中HT较DBZM和VIL对此次过程具有提前2~3个体扫的指示意义。【结论】研究结果为湖南秋季冰雹的短临预警提供了参考。

    Abstract:

    Hail events seldom occur in autumn in Hunan Province, but on November 9, 2023, Changsha experienced an unusual heavy hail event in late autumn. To investigate the causes and evolution stages of the hail event, by integrating multi-source observational data, reanalysis data sets, and dual-polarization radar observations from Changsha, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the ambient precursors and the radar echo characteristics of the convection evolution, and also discusses the significance of the storm parameter evolution on the early warning indication of the process. The findings include: 1) The heavy hail developed under a synoptic configuration characterized by an eastward-migrating upper-level trough and a low-level vortex. Conditional instability allowed the low-level convergence line to lift air parcels above the level of free convection, triggering intense convection. At the same time, optimal hail growth was facilitated by favorable vertical positioning of the -20℃ isotherm and the wet-bulb 0℃ layer. 2) The thermal conditions were moderate, with the K-index and 850-500 hPa temperature lapse rate below empirical thresholds for spring hail storms. In contrast, moisture and dynamic conditions were favorable, the development and maintenance of updraft associated with the differential reflectivity factor (ZDR) column were among the driving factors in the large hail process. 3) The updraft area corresponded to the ZDR column, while the downdraft aligned with the ZDR low-value band and the "specific differential phase (KDP) foot", which extended near the ground. Dual-polarization parameters such as KDP and correlation coefficient (CC) are useful for determining the phase state and size of hail. 4) During the development stage, the maximum reflectivity factor (DBZM) increased, the height of DBZM (HT) reached the effective growth layer for hail stones, the echo top height (TOP) rose, and the vertically integrated liquid content (VIL) increased abruptly. Among these, HT has indicator significance 2-3 individual sweeps earlier than DBZM and VIL. The research findings could provide a reference for short-time and nowcasting of autumn hail events in Hunan Province.

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彭听听,胡媚,唐明晖,等.长沙1次深秋超大冰雹的成因及预警初探[J].山地气象学报,2025,49(4):69-77.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-29
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-07
  • 录用日期:2025-03-28
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-18
  • 出版日期: 2025-08-30
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