基于加密观测的黔东南州“两山”地区汛期暴雨统计特征和环流分型
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贵州省黔东南州气象局

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黔东南州科技计划项目(黔东南科合基础〔2022〕09号);黔东南州科技计划项目(黔东南科合基础〔2023〕06号)


Statistical Characteristics and Circulation Patterns of Rainstorm in Flood Season in the Region of "Two Mountains" in Qiandongnan Prefecture Based on High-frequency Observations
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Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Office of Guizhou Province

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    摘 要:【目的】为清楚认识黔东南州“两山”地区汛期暴雨的时空分布特征、强度和发生规律,提高该地区致灾暴雨的预报预警准确率。【方法】选取较为完整的近10 a(2013—2022年)汛期(4—9月)黔东南州“两山”地区地面国家气象观测站、区域气象观测站逐小时、逐日降水量资料(20—20时)及MICAPS预报分析平台提供的暴雨出现当日或前一日08时高空到地面实况和探空资料,用统计学方法和天气学原理及方法,对黔东南州“两山”地区汛期暴雨的时空分布特征、强度和发生规律以及致灾暴雨类型进行统计分析。【结果】1)黔东南州汛期平均极端降水量主要出现在月亮山区,日极端降水量和最大雨强主要发生在雷公山区;5—6月“两山”地区平均暴雨日数和单站平均暴雨日数均呈增多趋势,6月上旬到7月上旬是雷公山区暴雨集中期,月亮山区暴雨集中期在5月下旬到7月上旬,较雷公山区偏早10 d左右,且月平均暴雨日数、旬平均暴雨日数和逐旬单站平均暴雨日数月亮山区最多,使该地区成为黔东南州汛期平均降水量最大中心。2)黔东南州“两山”地区致灾暴雨主要有暖区暴雨、冷锋暴雨、梅雨锋西段暴雨、热带系统暴雨四种类型,以暖区暴雨发生率最高、强度最强,梅雨锋西段暴雨次之。【结论】4种类型的致灾暴雨均发生在副高加强西伸北抬或减弱东退南撤的背景下,在预报业务中,关注影响系统的同时要重点分析副高的演变趋势。

    Abstract:

    This study aims to clearly understand the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, intensity and occurrence law of rainstorm in flood season in the "two mountains" region of Qiandongnan Prefecture, and improve the accuracy of forecasting and early warning of disaster-causing rainstorm in this area. Based on the relatively complete hourly and daily precipitation data from the national and regional meteorological stations in the "two mountains" region of Qiandongnan Prefecture in flood season (April-September) of the recent 10 years (2013-2022), as well as the observations from high-altitude to ground surface and the radiosonde data provided by MICAPS prediction and analysis platform on the day when the rainstorm occurred or at 8:00 on the previous day, we statistically analyze the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics, intensity and occurrence rules of the rainstorm in the "two mountains" region of Qiandongnan Prefecture in the flood season, as well as the disaster-causing rainstorm types by using statistical methods and synoptic principles and methods. The results show that: 1) The average extreme precipitation during the flood season in Qiandongnan Prefecture mainly occurs in the Moon Mountain area, while the daily extreme precipitation and maximum rainfall intensity mainly occur in the Leigong Mountain area. From May to June, the average rainstorm days in the region of "two mountains" and the average rainstorm days at a single station show an increasing trend. The rainstorm concentration period is from the first dekad of June to the first dekad of July in the Leigong Mountain area while the rainstorm concentration period in the Moon Mountain area is from the last dekad of May to the first dekad of July, about 10 d earlier than in the Leigong Mountain area. Moreover, the monthly average rainstorm days, dekad-average rainstorm days and dekad-average rainstorm days at a single station are the most in the Moon Mountain area, making this area the largest center of average precipitation in the flood season in Qiandongnan Prefecture. 2)The disaster-causing rainstorms in the "two mountains" area of Qiandongnan Prefecture are mainly the warm-sector rainstorm, cold-front rainstorm, rainstorm in the west section of Meiyu front, and tropical system rainstorm. The warm-sector rainstorm has the highest incidence and strongest intensity, followed by rainstorm in the west section of Meiyu front. The four types of disaster-causing rainstorm all occur in the context of the subtropical high strengthening its westward extension and northward uplift or weakening its eastward retreat and southward retreat. In forecasting operations, we should pay attention to the impact system while focusing on analyzing evolution trend of the subtropical high.

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白慧,刘埙勋,毛 倩,等.基于加密观测的黔东南州“两山”地区汛期暴雨统计特征和环流分型[J].山地气象学报,2025,49(4):16-25.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-21
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-25
  • 录用日期:2025-05-09
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-18
  • 出版日期: 2025-08-30
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