黔东南州1次强对流天气的双偏振特征与雷达产品检验评估
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1.贵州省黔东南苗族侗族自治州气象局;2.贵州省镇远县气象局

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黔东南科合气象〔2025〕002号,基于多源观测数据的黔东南州冰雹、雷暴大风天气预报技术研究;黔气科登[2024]07-02号,ROSE冰雹自动报警产品在黔东南地区的应用检验研究;黔东南科合气象〔2025〕007号,X波段雷达数据开展强降雨灾害精细化监测预警技术运用研究


Dual-Polarization Characteristics of a Severe Convection Event in Qiandongnan Prefecture and the Effect Evaluation of Radar Products
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1.Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Office of Guizhou Province;2.Zhenyuan Meteorological Station of Guizhou Province

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    摘要:

    【目的】为检验ROSE2.1在黔东南州灾害性天气短临监测预警中的应用效果,进一步发挥双偏振雷达在黔东南州强对流天气监测预警的作用。【方法】本文基于榕江C波段双偏振雷达和高空、地面气象观测资料,对2023年5月5日夜间贵州省黔东南州一次强对流天气过程进行诊断分析,并对ROSE2.1雷达产品的应用效果开展了检验评估。【结果】(1)此次过程受高空槽、低涡切变和地面辐合线的共同影响而触发,较大的CAPE值、强垂直风切变、上干冷下暖湿的不稳定层结和适宜的湿球0 ℃层高度为强对流风暴的生长和维持提供了有利环境条件。(2)影响黔东南州的超级单体风暴具有高的VIL值和回波顶高,降雹前最大反射率因子会有所增大,其所在高度先跃升至-10 ℃层附近或以上,然后迅速下降,双偏振参量剖面上可看到明显的ZDR柱和KDP空洞。(3)ROSE2.1的双偏振雷达UAM产品对本次强对流天气报警有较高的命中率,20 km2的报警面积设置对于此次过程表现最优。【结论】ROSE2.1报警产品对黔东南强对流天气有较好的指示作用,在做好参数本地化订正后可为今后的强对流天气的提前预报预警提供重要参考。

    Abstract:

    To test the application effects of ROSE2.1 in the short-time forecasting, nowcasting and early warning of disastrous weather and further produce marked effects of dual-polarization radar in monitoring and early warning of severe convective weather in Qiandongnan Prefecture, this paper analyzes a severe convective weather event that occurred in Qiandongnan Prefecture, Guizhou Province, on the night of May 5, 2023 based on the C-band dual-polarization radar data of Rongjiang and the high-level and surface meteorological observation data. Besides, the ROSE2.1 radar products are verified and evaluated as well. The results are as follows: (1) This severe convection process was triggered by the combined influence of upper trough, low vortex shear and surface convergence line. The large CAPE value, strong vertical wind shear, unstable stratification of dry-cold at the top and warm-wet at the bottom, and suitable wet bulb 0° C layer height provided favorable conditions for the growth and maintenance of severe convective storms. (2) The maximum reflectivity of the supercell storm with high VIL values and high echo top heights increased before the hail occurred, and its height first jumped to near or beyond the -10 ℃ layer and then rapidly descended. Clear ZDR columns and KDP voids can be found on the dual-polarization parametric profile. (3) The UAM products of ROSE2.1 have higher warning accuracy for this case, and a 20 km2 alarm setting has the best performance in this case. This suggests that ROSE2.1 has a good indication effect on the severe convective weather in Qiandongnan Prefecture. It can serve as an important reference for forecasting and warning of severe convective weather after the parameter correction is done.

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夏昌基,刘埙勋,毛倩,等.黔东南州1次强对流天气的双偏振特征与雷达产品检验评估[J].山地气象学报,2025,49(4):35-43.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-18
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-29
  • 录用日期:2025-05-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-18
  • 出版日期: 2025-08-30
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