遵义市短历时暴雨物理量特征分析及配料法应用
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贵州省遵义市气象局

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贵州省气象局科研业务登记项目(黔气科登〔2025〕01-01号);贵州省气象局省市联合基金项目(黔气科合SS〔2023〕23号);贵州省气象局省市联合研究基金开放项目(黔气科合SS-KF〔2024〕05号);贵州省科技厅项目(黔科合基础-ZK〔2022〕一般272)。


Physical Quantity Characteristics Analysis of of Short-Duration Rainstorms in Zunyi and Application of Typing Ingredients-Based Methodology
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Zunyi Meteorological Office of Guizhou Province

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    摘要:

    【目的】为对遵义地区短历时暴雨预报、服务业务提供帮助。【方法】本文利用2010—2021年遵义地区国家站和区域站的地面观测资料和ERA5再分析资料,通过绘制云雨图、常规统计方法等对遵义地区短历时暴雨的时空分布和物理量特征做出分析,建立出遵义地区短历时暴雨分型配料法,并做出检验。【结果】(1)遵义地区短历时暴雨主要集中在夏季,日高峰期出现在00—05时(北京时),高发区出现在赤水河谷、芙蓉江流域、喇叭口地形附近和海拔高差较大的地区。(2)遵义地区不同天气类型短历时暴雨之间的各个物理量分布存在显著差异,水汽条件是副高外围型>切变型>低涡切变型,动力条件是切变型>低涡切变型>副高外围型,不稳定能量条件是低涡切变型>副高外围型>切变型。(3)水汽条件方面,遵义地区短历时暴雨的水汽输送主要集中在700 hPa,有1/4的短历时暴雨站点500 hPa相对湿度大于80%;700 hPa相对湿度条件在切变型短历时暴雨形成中有着更为显著的集中性和一致性。不稳定条件方面,CAPE值并不是遵义地区短历时暴雨发生的必要条件;切变型和副高外围型短历时暴雨的T700-T500指示性要优于T850-T500。【结论】(1)通过对过程发生前物理量数值与云雨图上的各特征值比较,可以预判过程发生的概率。(2)本文基于分型配料法所得到的物理量关键指标对遵义地区短历时暴雨预报具有较好的指示性,可以在今后的业务中加以运用。

    Abstract:

    In order to provide assistance for short-duration rainstorm forecasting and service business in Zunyi, based on the surface observation data of national stations and regional stations in Zunyi as well as the ERA5 reanalysis data from 2010 to 2021, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution and physical quantity characteristics of short-duration rainstorm in Zunyi by drawing cloud and rain maps and conventional statistical methods, etc.. The typing ingredients-based methodology method for short-duration rainstorm in Zunyi is established and tested. The results show that: (1) The short-duration rainstorm in Zunyi is mainly concentrated in summer. Its daily peak tends to occur between 00:00 and 05:00 (Beijing time), and its high-incidence areas are located in the Chishui River Valley, the Furong River Basin and the areas with large elevation differences, and the areas near the trumpet-shaped terrain. (2) There are significant differences in the distribution of various physical quantities among short-duration rainstorms of different weather types in Zunyi region. The water vapor conditions are subtropical anticyclone peripheral type > shear type > vortex shear type. The dynamic conditions are shear type > vortex shear type > subtropical anticyclone peripheral type. The unstable energy conditions are vortex shear type > subtropical anticyclone peripheral type > shear type. (3) For the water vapor conditions, the water vapor transport of short-duration rainstorm in Zunyi is mainly concentrated at 700 hPa, while the relative humidity of 1/4 short-duration rainstorm stations is higher than 80% at 500 hPa. The relative humidity condition of 700 hPa has a more significant concentration and consistency during the formation of shear type short-duration rainstorm. In terms of unstable condition, CAPE value is not a necessary condition for the occurrence of short-duration rainstorm in Zunyi. The indicative value of T700-T500 for shear type and subtropical anticyclone peripheral type short-duration rainstorm is better than that of T850-T500. (4) By comparing the values of physical quantities before the short-duration rainstorm process with the characteristic values on the cloud and rain charts, the probability of the process occurring can be predicted in advance. Overall, the typing ingredients-based methodology established in this paper can provide a good indication for short-duration rainstorms in Zunyi region and can be used in future forecasting operations.

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陈茜茜,刘红双,田端,等.遵义市短历时暴雨物理量特征分析及配料法应用[J].山地气象学报,2025,49(4):53-61.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-02
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-25
  • 录用日期:2025-05-09
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-18
  • 出版日期: 2025-08-30
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