江西秋季高温气候特征及其与大气环流和海温的关系
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1.九江市气象局;2.鹰潭市气象局;3.修水县气象局

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江西省防灾减灾工程技术研究中心专项(JX2023M01)


Climatological Characteristics of Autumn High Temperature in Jiangxi Province and Its Relationship with Atmospheric Circulation and SST
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1.Jiujiang Meteorological Bureau;2.yingtan Meteorological Bureau;3.xiushui Meteorological Bureau

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Special Project of Jiangxi Provincial Disaster Prevention and Reduction Engineering Technology Research Center (JX2023M01)

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    摘要:

    摘要:【目的】气候变暖背景下,高温热浪事件呈现向春季和秋季延伸的趋势,为探究引起秋季高温热浪事件的大气环流异常信号,寻求可供预测的理论依据。【方法】利用常规观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,分析1961—2023年江西秋季高温日数的气候特征及其与大气环流和海温(SST)特征。【结果】1)江西秋季平均高温日数为3.6 d,呈先下降后上升的变化趋势,年际和年代际周期分别为4 a和14 a。高温强度主要在[35℃,40℃)范围内,空间上呈南多北少趋势,赣东北和赣南中北部为高温日数高值中心,赣西南高温日数增长速率最快。2)江西秋季高温日数偏多年,西北太平洋、贝加尔湖以北地区位势高度呈现正异常且东亚大槽偏强,西太平洋副热带高压呈东西带状结构。北印度洋至阿拉伯半岛的低层大气中有显著西南气流,偏南风距平与江西秋季高温日数成正比。同时,赤道至我国华南地区海平面气压偏低,有利于江西秋季高温日数增多。3)江西秋季高温日数与北太平洋、赤道新几内亚岛周边海域海表温度呈正相关,与赤道东太平洋海表温度呈负相关。当上述地区海域海表温度偏暖(偏冷)时,可通过激发遥相关波列与西太平洋副热带高压、南亚高压及东亚上空纬向风发生联系,进而影响江西秋季气温发生变化。特别是其与前冬和秋季北太平洋海表温度相关系数高,可作为秋季高温预测的可靠前期信号。【结论】研究揭示了西太平洋副热带高压和南亚高压是江西秋季高温的主要影响系统,秋季西太平洋副热带地区海表温度与高温日数呈明显正相关。

    Abstract:

    Under the background of climate warming, heat wave events are showing a trend of extending towards spring and autumn. To explore the abnormal signals of atmospheric circulation that cause autumn high temperature and seek theoretical basis for prediction, this paper uses conventional observation data, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and other relevant data to analyze the climatic characteristics of the number of high-temperature days in autumn in Jiangxi from 1961 to 2023 and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics. The results showed that: 1) The average number of high temperature days in autumn in Jiangxi is 3.6 days, showing a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. The inter-annual and inter-decadal periods are 4 years and 14 years, respectively. The high temperature intensity mainly ranges from 35℃ to 40℃, with a spatial trend of more in the south and less in the north. The northeast of Jiangxi and the north-central part of southern Jiangxi are high-value centers for high temperature days. The growth rate of high temperature days in southwestern Jiangxi is the fastest. 2) In the years when the high temperature days in autumn in Jiangxi are above the normal, the geopotential height in the Northwest Pacific and the area north of Lake Baikal shows a positive anomaly and the East Asian trough is relatively strong. The Western Pacific subtropical high presents an east-west zonal structure. There is a significant southwest air flow in the lower atmosphere from the North Indian Ocean to the Arabian Peninsula, and the southerly anomaly is proportional to the number of high temperature days in autumn in Jiangxi. Meanwhile, the sea level pressure is lower from the equator to South China, which is favorable for an increase in high temperature days in autumn in Jiangxi. 3) The number of autumn high temperature days in Jiangxi is positively correlated to SST in the North Pacific and the surrounding waters of Equatorial New Guinea Island, but negatively correlated to SST in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. When the SST in the above-mentioned waters is warmer (colder), it can be influenced by triggering teleconnection wave trains to connect with the Western Pacific subtropical high, South Asia high, and zonal winds over East Asia, thereby affecting the temperature changes in autumn in Jiangxi. Especially, its high correlation coefficient with the North Pacific SST in the previous winter and autumn can serve as a reliable early signal for predicting high temperatures in autumn. This study reveals that subtropical high pressure in the Western Pacific and South Asian high pressure are the main impact systems of Jiangxi''s autumn high temperature. The sea surface temperature in the subtropical areas of the Western Pacific in autumn was significantly positively correlated with the number of high-temperature days.

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陈新玉,邵明阳,陈宏祥,等.江西秋季高温气候特征及其与大气环流和海温的关系[J].山地气象学报,2025,49(4):1-8.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-25
  • 最后修改日期:2025-01-01
  • 录用日期:2025-01-13
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-18
  • 出版日期: 2025-08-30
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