以5a一遇为阈值的铜仁市1~3d极端降水分布特征分析
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贵州省印江县气象局

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Distribution Characteristics of 1-3 Day Extreme Precipitation in Tongren City with 5-Year Return Period Threshold
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Yinjiang Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province

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    摘要:

    【目的】分析铜仁市5年一遇1~3d极端降水阈值及其时空分布特征。【方法】基于铜仁市10个国家级气象站1970-2023年3-11月逐日降水资料,采用降序法计算阈值,以年均次数表示空间分布,各月占比表示时间分布。【结果】铜仁市5年一遇极端降水在4-11月均可能发生,主要集中在6-7月。空间分布显示:松桃、碧江、江口、德江、万山年均极端降水次数>1.5次;沿河、印江、思南、石阡为0.8~1.5次;玉屏<0.7次。松桃、江口、碧江易发1d极端降水;德江、松桃、碧江、万山、江口较易发生2d极端降水;全市3d极端降水发生概率均较低。【结论】铜仁市极端降水风险排序为:松桃>碧江>江口>德江>万山>沿河>印江>思南>石阡,重点防范期为6-7月。

    Abstract:

    Based on daily precipitation data from 10 national meteorological stations in Tongren City, Guizhou Province during March-November 1970-2023, this study analyzed the threshold values and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of 1-3 day extreme precipitation events with a 5-year return period using descending order method. The results show that extreme precipitation events are likely to occur from April to November in Tongren City, with the highest frequency in June-July. Spatially, Songtao, Bijiang, Jiangkou, Dejiang and Wanshan counties experience more than 1.5 extreme precipitation events annually; Yanhe, Yinjiang, Sinan and Shiqian counties have 0.8-1.5 events; while Yuping County records less than 0.7 events. The highest risks of 1-day extreme precipitation occur in Songtao, Jiangkou and Bijiang counties; 2-day extreme precipitation is more frequent in Dejiang, Songtao, Bijiang, Wanshan and Jiangkou; while 3-day extreme precipitation is relatively rare across the whole city. The extreme precipitation risk ranking in Tongren City is: Songtao > Bijiang > Jiangkou > Dejiang > Wanshan > Yanhe > Yinjiang > Sinan > Shiqian, with June-July being the critical prevention period.

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谢仁波,简鑫,张怀芳,等.以5a一遇为阈值的铜仁市1~3d极端降水分布特征分析[J].山地气象学报,2025,49(3):99-104.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-02
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-25
  • 录用日期:2025-01-02
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-11
  • 出版日期: 2025-06-30
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