广东省降水非均匀性的多尺度时空变化特征
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1.广东省佛山市南海区气象局;2.广东省广州市增城区气象局;3.广东省广州市气象台;4.广东省中山市气象局

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广东省重点领域研发计划项目(2020B1111200001);广东省气象数据中心科研项目(2023A13);广州市气象学会科研项目(Q202201);佛山市气象局科技创新团队项目(202303)。


Characteristics of Multi-scale Spatio-temporal Variation of Precipitation Heterogeneity in Guangdong Province
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1.Foshan Nanhai Meteorological Station of Guangdong Province;2.Guangzhou Zengcheng Meteorological Station of Guangdong Province;3.Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory of Guangdong Province;4.Zhongshan Meteorological Office of Guangdong Province

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    摘要:

    【目的】揭示广东省降水非均匀性的多尺度时空变化特征,为科学应对水旱灾害和水资源利用等提供依据。【方法】基于广东省86个国家气象观测站1973—2023年逐日降水资料,利用不同时间尺度的降水集中度和降水集中期、变异系数、Sen斜率趋势系数、以及Hurst指数等对广东省年内降水分配非均匀性特征的时空变化格局进行分析。【结果】1973—2023年广东省年内降水集中度为0.32~0.57,空间分布特征为南高北低;降水集中期整体表现为“北早南晚”的准纬向分布;就日、旬、月尺度而言,降水主要集中在5月21日—8月21日、5月下旬—8月下旬、5—8月;当年降水量大时,年内降水分布往往较为均匀,降水集中期提前;降水集中度总体变化趋势不显著,为−0.002 4~0.001 9/a,其未来一段时期的变化趋势与历史演变相同。【结论】日尺度和旬尺度较月尺度更能精细地刻画广东省降水非均匀性特征,降水集中度和集中期具有明显的地域分异特征。

    Abstract:

    The multi-scale variation characteristics of precipitation heterogeneity in Guangdong are studied to provide bases for dealing with drought and flood disasters as well as water resources utilization scientifically. Based on daily precipitation data from 86 national meteorological stations in Guangdong Province from 1973 to 2023, we analyze the spatio-temporal variation patterns of the intra-annual precipitation distribution heterogeneity characteristics in Guangdong Province by using the precipitation concentration degree (PCD) and precipitation concentration period (PCP) at different time scales, variable coefficient, Sen''s slope trend coefficient, and Hurst index. The results indicate that the PCD in Guangdong Province varies from 0.32 to 0.57, and the spatial distribution is characterized by being high in the south and low in the north. The PCP generally shows a quasi-latitudinal distribution of "early in the north and late in the south". In terms of daily, dekad and monthly scales, the precipitation is mainly concentrated in the periods from May 21st to August 21st, from the last dekad of May to the last dekad of August, and from May to August. When the annual precipitation was at a high level, the intra-annual precipitation distribution tends to be more uniform, and the PCP tends to come earlier. The overall change trend of the PCD is not significant, ranging from −0.002 4· year−1 to 0.001 9· year−1, and its change trend in the future period is the same as the historical evolution. The daily and dekad scales of precipitation can more finely characterize the precipitation heterogeneity characteristics in Guangdong Province than the monthly scale, and the PCD and PCP have obvious regional differentiation characteristics.

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余锐,孙丽颖,张兰,等.广东省降水非均匀性的多尺度时空变化特征[J].山地气象学报,2025,49(4):62-68.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-25
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-25
  • 录用日期:2025-01-02
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-18
  • 出版日期: 2025-08-30
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