In order to provide reference for the formulation of local ecological and environmental management measures, the temporal evolution and driving factors of vegetation NPP in Tongren City from 2000 to 2022 were discussed through Coefficient of Variation, Hurst exponent, correlation analysis and GeoDetector. The results indicate that over the last 23 years, vegetation NPP in Tongren has displayed a fluctuating upward trend with clear spatial variations—higher in the west and lower in the east, averaging 752.78 gC·m-2·a-1. Predominantly, the area showed a steady increase in vegetation NPP, constituting 85.44% with an average coefficient of variation of 0.08. Future trends suggest predominantly weak anti-persistence, covering 81.33% of the area. In Tongren, vegetation NPP is positively correlated with temperature and precipitation (through 0.05 confidence test), with temperature as the primary climatic driver. Natural factors, particularly temperature, elevation, and precipitation, play a more significant role than human factors in influencing vegetation NPP. Among these, precipitation demonstrates the strongest interaction with population, GDP, and elevation. In conclusion, while vegetation NPP in Tongren is generally positive and on the rise, the anticipated future trend appears less favorable. Comprehensive consideration of climate, topography, and human activities is essential for enhancing ecological protection and advancing economic development.