ROSE2.1产品在黔东南一次冰雹天气过程中的应用检验
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1.贵州省黔东南州气象局;2.贵州省岑巩县气象局;3.贵州省从江县气象局

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Application verification of ROSE2.1 products in a hail weather process in southeastern Guizhou
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1.Meterological Bureau of Southeast Guizhou;2.Cengong Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province;3.Congjiang Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province

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    摘要:

    【目的】根据中国气象局部署,自2023年12月1日起,在全国所有组网业务运行的新一代天气雷达正式业务运行ROSE2.1,为检验ROSE2.1冰雹报警产品在黔东南州短临监测预警业务中的应用效果,提高本地冰雹监测预警能力。【方法】本文选取2023年4月18日黔东南州出现的一次冰雹天气过程,基于ROSE2.1.2版本软件,利用ROSE降水估测和报警产品评估系统,对榕江双偏振雷达和三穗单偏振雷达两部雷达ROSE2.1系统中冰雹报警产品(UAM hail)以及两部雷达组网的冰雹报警产品(NUAM hail),从命中次数、虚警次数、漏报次数、命中率、虚警率、漏报率、准确率七个方面分距离等级进行检验评估,并计算其报警提前量。【结果】得出:①榕江雷达及两部雷达组网的冰雹报警产品UAM hail和NUAM hail的命中率和准确率均与距离成正比,即随距离增加而增大,三穗雷达冰雹报警产品UAM hail命中率和准确率与距离成反比,即随距离增加而减小。②三个产品各有所长,互补短板,分距离等级50 km范围内三穗雷达表现最优,50 km以上榕江雷达表现最优;平均榕江雷达表现最优,组网的较三穗雷达有明显提升,三穗雷达无虚警率,榕江、组网有一定的虚警率。③ROSE2.1冰雹报警产品提前量榕江雷达平均时间提前量最高,组网的产品最低,但整体均在30 min以上,对冰雹的短临预报预警业务有很好的指示意义。【结论】在冰雹的短临监测预警业务中,当ROSE2.1冰雹报警产品持续报警时次小于2个时,可认为报警产品为虚警。

    Abstract:

    According to the deployment of the China Meteorological Administration, since December 1, 2023, the new generation of weather radar in all network operations nationwide has officially operated ROSE2.1. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of ROSE2.1 hail alarm products in short-term monitoring and early warning services in Qiandongnan Prefecture and enhance local hail monitoring and early warning capabilities, this article selects a hail weather process that occurred in Qiandongnan Prefecture on April 18, 2023. Based on the ROSE2.1.2 version software, using the ROSE precipitation estimation and alarm product evaluation system, the hail alarm products (UAM hail) of the two radar ROSE2.1 systems of the Rongjiang dual polarization radar and the Sansui single polarization radar, as well as the hail alarm products (NUAM hail) of the two radar networks, are tested and evaluated from seven aspects: hit times, false alarm times, missed report times, hit rate, false alarm rate, missed report rate, and accuracy rate, from three distance levels , and their alarm advance is calculated.The results are as follows: ①The hit rate and accuracy of the hail warning products UAM hail and NUAM hail from the Rongjiang radar and the two radar networks are directly proportional to the distance, that is, they increase with the increase of distance. The hit rate and accuracy of the hail warning product UAM hail from the San Sui radar are inversely proportional to the distance, that is, they decrease with the increase of distance.②The three products have their own strengths and complement each other"s weaknesses. From the perspective of distance, the San Sui radar performs best within 50km, while the Rongjiang radar performs best above 50km.On average, the Rongjiang radar performs best, and the networking performance is significantly improved compared to the San Sui radar. The San Sui radar has no false alarm rate, while the Rongjiang radar and networking have a certain false alarm rate.③The ROSE2.1 hail warning product has the highest average time advance of the Rongjiang radar, and the lowest for the networked products, but both are above 30 minutes overall, which is a good indicator for short-term and imminent forecasting and warning services for hail.In the short-term and imminent monitoring and warning service for hail, when the ROSE2.1 hail warning product continues to alarm less than 2 times, the warning product can be considered as a false alarm.

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毛倩,龙凌云,刘埙勋,等. ROSE2.1产品在黔东南一次冰雹天气过程中的应用检验[J].山地气象学报,2024,48(4):24-32.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-19
  • 最后修改日期:2024-06-04
  • 录用日期:2024-06-11
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-10-28
  • 出版日期: 2024-08-30
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