基于实况资料的Stacking回归模型下游气温预报方法
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1.贵州省贵阳市开阳县气象局;2.贵阳市白云区气象局

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Downstream Temperature Forecasting Method of Stacking Regression Model Based on Real Stacking Data
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1.Kaiyang Meteorological Station of Guiyang;2.Baiyun District Meteorological Station of Guiyang

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    摘要:

    【目的】现今大多数气温预报模型是基于数值预报建立的。然而,这种模型存在一个主要问题,即预测精度完全受数值预报精度的影响,导致预报员过度依赖该模型,缺乏对天气实况资料的认知。【方法】为了解决这个问题,本文利用2013-2022年的贵州省自动气象站资料,在考虑气温上下游的相关性的基础上,使用夏季气温实况资料得到了安顺市西秀区日最高和最低气温与省内其他台站之间相隔24 h的皮尔逊相关系数。然后,利用机器学习块选择了Stacking回归模型,建立了一种本地的未来24 h气温预报方法。【结果】结果表明:(1)上下游最高和最低气温相关性均通过了0.005的显著性检验,表明西秀区24 h气温变化主要受到上游毕节、大方、播州、开阳和贵阳等地的影响;(2)本文所建立的Stacking回归模型能够很好地预测24 h最高和最低气温的变化趋势,在使用±2 ℃的温度检验方法下,准确率分别达到了83.7%和93.47%;(3)最高气温的预测准确率低于最低气温,这也反映出西秀区最高气温预报的难度较高。【结论】该方法能够有效降低对数值模式的过度依赖,同时在预测本地24 h气温时具有较高的准确率、稳定性和普适性。

    Abstract:

    Nowadays, most temperature prediction models are based on numerical prediction. However, there is a major problem with this model, that is, the prediction accuracy is completely affected by the accuracy of numerical prediction, resulting in excessive reliance on the model and lack of knowledge of the actual weather data. In order to solve this problem, based on the data of automatic weather stations in Guizhou Province from 2013 to 2022, the Pearson correlation coefficient between the daily maximum and minimum temperatures in Xixiu District of Anshun City and other stations in the province was obtained by using the summer temperature data on the basis of considering the correlation between the upstream and downstream temperatures. Then, machine learning blocks were used to select the Stacking regression model and establish a local future 24 h temperature forecast method. The results show that: (1) the correlation between maximum and minimum temperature in the upper and lower reaches of Xixiu District passes the significance test of 0.005, which indicates that the 24-hour temperature change in Xixiu District is mainly affected by Bijie, Dafang, Bozhou, Kaiyang and Guiyang in the upper reaches; (2) The regression model established in this paper can well predict the trends of maximum and minimum air temperature in 24 h. Under the ±2 ℃ temperature inspection method, the accuracy rate is 83.7% and 93.47%, respectively. (3) The prediction accuracy of maximum temperature is lower than that of minimum temperature, which also reflects the difficulty of maximum temperature forecast in Xixiu District. This method can effectively reduce the over-reliance on numerical models, and has high accuracy, stability and universality in predicting local 24 h temperature.

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邓世有,潘影.基于实况资料的Stacking回归模型下游气温预报方法[J].山地气象学报,2024,48(5):34-40.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-04
  • 最后修改日期:2024-08-16
  • 录用日期:2024-08-27
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-11-19
  • 出版日期: 2024-10-30
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