Abstract:: This articles by using 2010-2014 yaan 381 regional automatic station precipitation data, micaps live data and NCEP reanalysis data, the selection of the five typical 53 years alone on the circulation situation, classification, according to the results showed that (1) influence the circulation situation of yaan short-time strong rainfall mainly includes: cut plateau variant, upper trough, low vortex, the subtropical high control type, cut variant, typhoon periphery type projects. Pattern, and accounts for 43% of all proportion and the typical example to analyze its height empty weather system configuration, the final will be the main characteristic of circulation divided into three types: plateau, and, projects variant cutting type and the subtropical high control. In this paper, three types of weather models are established. (2) using the NCEP reanalysis data to calculate the threshold value of physical quantity when heavy precipitation occurs, the statistical analysis is more than 60% of the various physical threshold values in the sample of the short-term strong precipitation samples. Heat and moisture conditions, high cut variants and projects, and is generally better than the subtropical high control type power, the first two kinds of dynamic parameters indicating significance is better, with systemic convergence lift is given priority to, and the third is mainly by the low-level PianDongFeng disturbance caused by the action of atmospheric and landforms arose.
